Science:大量未记录的感染者可促进新型冠状病毒的快速传播

640 (5).png           

2019年底出现的新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV2)迅速传播至中国所有省份,并于2020年3月1日传播至其他58个国家。遏制该病毒的一切努力正在进行中,但由于病原体的传播和毒力存在许多不确定性,因此这些努力的有效性尚不清楚。估计未记录的新型冠状病毒感染的发生率和传染性对于了解该疾病的总体发生率和大流行潜力至关重要。


近日有学者在Science发文,结合流动性数据,网络化的动态人口模型、贝叶斯推断和在中国境内已报告的感染情况,推断出与SARS-CoV2相关的关键流行病学特征,包括未证明的感染率及其传染性。


该研究估计,在2020年1月23日限制出行之前,所有感染中有86%没有记录在册(95%CI:[82%–90%])。人均未记录感染的传播率是已记录感染的55%([46%–62%]),但由于数量较多,未记录感染者是79%已记录病例的传染源。

640 (6).png

研究者认为这些发现解释了SARS-CoV2在地理上的迅速传播,并表明遏制该病毒将特别具有挑战性。




摘要全文


Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.



参考文献

Li R, Pei S, Chen B, et al. Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)[J]. Science, 2020: eabb3221.



Powered by 上海翼石信息科技有限公司 © 2001-2020 dayibian Inc.
沪ICP备12046386号-1